NATO's credibility and future viability are at a critical juncture as leaders gather in Turkey this week. The summit comes amidst heightened scrutiny from the White House, with new European defense spending targets under the microscope. This week's gathering will test whether Europe can rapidly translate increased budgets into military might to maintain President Donald Trump's engagement, while also preparing for a future where the U.S. plays a diminished role in the continent's security.
The 2025 NATO summit in The Hague marked a significant breakthrough, with allies committing to spending 5% of their GDP on defense by 2035, including 3.5% on core defense requirements and 1.5% on broader security needs. However, this year's summit in Ankara is expected to shift the focus from pledges to implementation, raising questions about procurement, industrial capacity, support for Ukraine, and the political architecture of what the Trump administration has dubbed 'NATO 3.0'.
Ulrike Franke, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, warns that this summit is more about burden-shifting than burden-sharing. The U.S. has been the cornerstone of NATO for 77 years, and the political implications of a reduced U.S. role are significant. Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, highlights the challenge of organizing defense without the U.S. at the center. The lack of a 'plan B' if the U.S. decides to disengage is a major concern for NATO.
European governments have generally accepted the need for increased spending, production, and responsibility. However, the unpredictable nature of Trump's approach to allies, as exemplified by his frustration over perceived insufficient European support during the Iran conflict, adds complexity. Franke emphasizes the importance of clarity and a roadmap for allies if the U.S. were to withdraw forces, assets, or capabilities. This unpredictability also underscores the need for a unified European front, particularly on defense spending, despite varying threat perceptions across the continent.
The defense spending boom in Europe has already begun, with Poland, the Baltic states, and Nordic countries leading the way. However, larger economies are moving more slowly due to fiscal constraints and domestic politics. The fragmented European defense industry, constrained by supply chains, bureaucracy, labor shortages, and years of underinvestment, presents a significant challenge. Joint procurement could theoretically lower costs and improve interoperability, but national political incentives often hinder cooperation.
The summit will also focus on Ukraine's evolving role. As Russia suffers heavy losses on the battlefield, Ukraine has stepped up its long-range drone and missile strikes inside Russia, targeting energy, military, and logistics infrastructure. Franke argues that NATO should view Ukraine as a source of military innovation, particularly in drones, counter-drone systems, and battlefield data. This shift in perspective could transform the NATO-Ukraine relationship from aid recipient to aid provider, with Ukraine contributing to NATO's preparation for modern warfare.
The summit comes amidst ongoing tensions between Washington and European allies, including Trump's dissatisfaction with European support during the Iran conflict. Iran is likely to be a featured topic in Ankara, with potential contributions to maritime security and peace arrangements. However, European unity is crucial, even if contributions are limited and symbolic, given the varying threat perceptions across Europe. The summit's timing, coinciding with the last year of Trump's presidency, adds urgency and potential significance to the messages conveyed by NATO leaders.
Turkey's role as host further complicates the dynamics. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan aims to showcase Turkey's centrality, avoid diplomatic breakdowns, and strengthen Ankara's case for defense procurement access as European spending increases. Turkey's concerns about being excluded from EU defense spending and access to future contracts and joint projects are also relevant. As NATO navigates the challenges of keeping the U.S. engaged, arming Europe, and supporting Ukraine, Turkey will advocate for its inclusion in any new European security architecture.
